Feeling overwhelmed by uncertainty?

Written By Marina Hop

It might help if we had a better view of the future, but you don't need to be a clairvoyant to see what might be coming.

While no one can predict the future with certainty, we can create scenarios to explore what might happen next. By imagining hypothetical situations and identifying the principles that govern what could happen, we can plot what might happen next.

Take Meredith Whitney, for example. In 2005, she identified the early signs of the 2007 financial crash by analysing factors like low home equity, high debt and rising commodity prices. By imagining a fictional crisis scenario, she uncovered vulnerabilities in Bear Stearns, even though she chose not to warn of its impending collapse.

The secret is to use your imagination:

  • Visualise how events may unfold under specific conditions.

  • Ask, "What would need to be true for this to happen?"

  • Challenge your scenario by considering, "What if I’m wrong?"

This process helps identify critical factors that could influence outcomes and provides signposts to suggest what way the future might be heading.

Marina Hop
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